Josh Giddey took a $46m gamble. It’s backfiring and he’s now at an NBA crossroads

Josh Giddey took a $46m gamble. It’s backfiring and he’s now at an NBA crossroads.

It wasn’t long ago that Josh Giddey was hot NBA property; reaching unprecedented heights in Oklahoma City as the league’s newest nightly triple-double threat.

 

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But now, in a contract year after failing to agree on a long-term extension with the Chicago Bulls — and having found himself the constant subject of external criticism — the talented ball-handler appears at a career crossroads not even four seasons in.

Wheeling and dealing with the burgeoning Thunder, the 2021 No. 6 draft pick was an instrumental part of Oklahoma City’s ascension to title contention in the Western Conference.

 

In early 2022, a then-19-year-old Giddey became the youngest player in NBA history to record a triple-double, showcasing his arsenal of talents as the main facilitator on a successful team.

 

Giddey played 76 games in the 22-23 season, recording averages of 16.6 points on 48.2 per cent shooting, 7.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists.

 

Then, it was near impossible to argue he had the most promising trajectory of an Australian basketballer since Ben Simmons in his formative Philadelphia years.

However, despite the 6’8 guard’s playmaking strengths, Giddey struggled both as a three-point shooter and a defender from the outset of his career — and they have irrefutably remained stumbling blocks in his progression.

 

In the 2021-22 season, Giddey shot a disappointing 26.3 per cent from three-point land. And while he was able to improve incrementally in his second and third seasons, Giddey never managed better than a 33.7 per cent clip from distance during his time in Oklahoma City.

For the Thunder, it meant issues with floor spacing were nearing boiling point — particularly with higher playoff stakes.

Giddey appeared in 80 of a possible 82 regular season games for the one-seed Thunder in 2023-24, playing an average of 25.2 minutes. However, still essentially a non-factor from outside the arc, his playoff minutes were stripped back significantly — until his starting status eventually perished.

 

He averaged 26.5 minutes in OKC’s 4-0 first-round rout of the New Orleans Pelicans, but after struggling in the Thunder’s slow-moving second-round matchup with the Dallas Mavericks, Giddey managed just 11.8 minutes across the following five meetings — and in game six was banished from the starting five for the first time in his career — as OKC was eliminated in six games by the eventual Western Conference champs.

“Obviously I was struggling. Coach (Mark Daigneault) did what he thought was best for the team,” Giddey said at the time.

 

“To be honest, I probably agree with him. As hard as it is for a player to sit there and say ‘I should be on the bench’, at the time, Cason (Wallace), Isaiah (Joe), these guys were probably better in the series (against) Dallas.

“I don’t want to feel this feeling again. It will make me a lot better and stronger as a player to never let something like this happen again.”

 

But ultimately, in the off-season, a parting of ways was the result.

Oklahoma City dealt the Melbourne product to Chicago in exchange for three-time NBA All-Defensive Team guard Alex Caruso.

 

The general feeling in the aftermath was the Bulls should have yielded a greater return for Caruso than just Giddey — a player who had just suffered a fall from grace and whose trade value seemed at an all-time low.

But given the uncertain NBA future of injury-hampered Chicago star Lonzo Ball entering the season, it made sense that the Bulls moved for a crafty, pass-first guard — someone who could get the best out of central scorers Zach LaVine, Coby White and Nikola Vucevic.

 

However, with lesser talent around him than at the Thunder, Giddey hasn’t been able to put his best foot forward in Chicago — with familiar issues hindering his NBA progress.

The 22-year-old floor general has improved his three-point efficiency, posting a 36.4 per cent hit rate in 18 games thus far — and the Bulls are playing with promising pace — but familiar defensive issues remain.

The blight on his campaign to this point was in the Bulls’ leaky 144-126 loss to the Eastern Conference-leading Cleveland Cavaliers on November 17.

 

Giddey managed five points on 2-9 shooting and one assist in a season-low 15 minutes played; benched by coach Billy Donovan to start the second half.

 

“I wouldn’t have played myself if I was Billy, either. I was bad at both ends,” Giddey said in the aftermath.

 

This season, when Giddey is on the court, Chicago has posted a leaky 122.6 defensive rating compared with a 114.5 score when he is watching from the sidelines.

 

“Is (Giddey) going to be an elite defender in the NBA? Probably not,” Donovan said recently.

 

“He can master coverage, he can master footwork, he can master, ‘I’m 6-foot-8, I don’t need to close all the way out, I need to figure out my foot speed, I don’t need to get blown by.’

“He has size and IQ, (but) I do think he’s got to get way more physical in my opinion.”

 

Of Giddey’s footwork in particular, Donovan said: “It’s got to be much better.”

 

Back to his offence, Giddey is one of the worst shooters in the league at the rim; within 0-3 feet, his 51.6 per cent hit rate ranks a lowly 252nd out of 276 qualified players.

 

Further, as someone who oftentimes struggles separating from defenders on drives to the hoop, he is also the 11th-most-blocked guard in the league this season.

Giddey’s plus-minus for the season ranks 462nd out of 485 qualified players. The Bulls also have a better three-point attempt rate with Giddey off the floor, a better shot quality, and they play at a slightly higher pace when he is watching on.

Having been unable to reach agreement on a long-term deal with his new club in the pre-season — set to enter restricted free agency in the off-season — Giddey has bet on himself as he eyes a lucrative contract.

 

According to Yahoo Sports’ Jake Fischer, that figure was around $30 million (A$46m) per year on his next deal.

 

For context, Orlando Magic guard Jalen Suggs — taken one pick before Giddey at No. 5 in 2021 — signed a five-year, $150 million ($30m AAV) extension in October, while No. 8 pick and Magic teammate Franz Wagner earned a five-year, $224 million ($44.8m AAV) deal.

The progression of his three-point shooting is obviously promising, having worked closely with heralded Bulls director of player development Peter Patton this year — but Giddey must continue to launch from distance even when shots aren’t falling in order to draw close-outs consistently; which will help Chicago’s floor-spacing.

Drawing those close-outs also affords Giddey more ease in putting the ball on the floor and separating on aggressive drives — which he also needs to keep initiating to keep the defence on its toes.

 

And on the other end, Giddey needs to be more switched-on and attentive to his opponents’ off-ball movements. Stay in front in perimeter situations and don’t be beaten by back-door cuts.

 

Lastly, body language is important.

 

It is clear Giddey feels the pressure to perform — often seen with his head in his hands after a miss at the rim or a turnover — but he can’t afford to get too high or too low.

And without trying to be too suggestive, it is hard to argue Giddey’s off-court hitches haven’t had an impact.

 

In any case, the Australian’s path to becoming a formidable NBA starter very much remains open, but improvements must still be made to ensure that path is still a possibility — and to instil confidence in Chicago’s front office that he is worth a long-term deal.